bellwether
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bellwether:
A bellwether is any entity in a given arena that serves to create or influence trends or to presage future happenings. The term is derived from the Middle English bellewether and refers to the practice of placing a bell around the neck of a castrated ram (a wether) in order that this animal might lead its flock of sheep.
Where I found or heard this:
CNN, Super Tuesday
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