Guus Bosman

Like I said earlier, watching the primaries unfold is great. Tonight from 8.00 pm we were at the TV and watching the first results coming in from 8.30 pm. Too bad CNN had Lou "War on the Middle Class" Dobbs presenting the first part; I was glad that Larry King took over at 9.00 pm.

Let me try a little predicting for the Republican race: I think Huckabee will win in South Carolina. His organization is strong there, the polls look good and coming from Arkansas he should do well in the South. For Florida, the next primary after South Carolina on Saturday, I find it hard to make a reasonable guess. Guilliani keeps saying that Florida is 'his state' because of the people who moved there from New York but that seems to me a weak idea for an election strategy. Guilliani has done embarrassingly bad in the first few primaries even in states where he could have been expected to do well. Mitt Romney is somewhat stiff in his manners, and his opponents call him a 'flip flopper' but of all the candidates he has the best chance of winning, if not in Florida then at least on February 5th, Super Tuesday.

Over-all, of all the candidates, I think Romney is probably best placed to win the nomination. I like McCain myself, but I don't think he has a serious chance of winning: the Republican base just doesn't care for him, and his campaign has hardly any money left. The same goes for Thompson, he is doing pretty bad, has never had any real momentum expect for when he wasn't running yet and his funds are running low. I'd say Huckabee makes a small chance, but I believe Mitt Romney will be the Republican nominate for 2008.